HEALTH: “Swine” Flu in Context

By John Shapiro | JohnShapiro.com

Though the potential for a serious pandemic caused by flu or some other deadly disease is highly probable in the future, the current “swine flu pandemic” has been significantly blown out of proportion by the news media and does not represent a new or unusual health threat when put into context of “regular” flu.

For the most part, the news media failed to report an accurate, comparative analysis between the current “swine” flu outbreak and “regular” flu. “Regular” flu is an ongoing global health issue which kills and hospitalizes many people per year. Additionally, when high profile coverage of “swine” flu first began, the “swine” flu death numbers were initially reported as being significantly higher than the actual deaths that actually occurred. Undoubtedly, the inaccurate portrayal of this story has resulted in significant emotional unease and worry for millions of people as well as significant financial loss to businesses affected by a drop in tourism and people staying home out of worry.

May this type of reporting serve as an ongoing reminder to us all to take the news media reports with a grain of salt, knowing that the motivation of news outlets is often not solely the reporting of the facts, but also to create an emotional reaction to a story to sell their product and it’s related advertising. Furthermore, it behooves us to treat news stories with healthy skepticism simply because it is common for reporters to receive inaccurate information and thus unknowingly pass that incorrect information on to us.

The numbers below serve to put “swine” flu in context of “regular” flu.

“REGULAR” FLU DEATHS

PER YEAR
36,000 (US)
788,400 (WORLD)(1)

PER DAY
99 (US)
2168 (WORLD)(1)

“REGULAR” FLU HOSPITALIZATIONS

PER YEAR
200,000 (US)
4,380,000 (WORLD)(1)

PER DAY
554 (US)
12,132 (WORLD)(1)

“SWINE” FLU AND “REGULAR” FLU COMPARED OVER 13 DAYS(2)

WORLDWIDE DEATHS
28,184 (”REGULAR” FLU)(1)
30 (”SWINE” FLU)
0.001% OF ALL FLU DEATHS HAVE BEEN FROM “SWINE” FLU

WORLDWIDE HOSPITALIZATIONS
157,716 (”REGULAR” FLU)(1)
134 (”SWINE” FLU)(3)
0.001% OF ALL FLU HOSPITALIZATIONS HAVE BEEN FROM “SWINE” FLU

ABOUT THE NUMBERS

The “regular” flu numbers above are based on statistical flu estimates in the United States and multiplied by the current world population estimates.

(1) There is no reliable source to estimate world flu deaths and hospitalizations. It should be assumed that these numbers are actually significantly higher due to lack of adequate medical care in much of the world.

(2) 13 days = From April 23, 2009 (emergency declared by Mexico and wide reporting by news media) through May 5, 2009 (the writing of this article)

(3) Based on U.S. data in aforementioned time frame: 35 of 403 confirmed cases in the U.S. have resulted in hospitalization

SOURCES

“Swine” flu numbers: http://whoterrance.vo.msecnd.net/mediacentre/swine_flu/GlobalSubnationalMaster_20090505_1610.jpg
“Regular flu numbers: http://jama.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/full/292/11/1333 http://jama.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/full/289/2/179
Population: http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html
U.S “Swine” flu hospitalizations: http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jcuX6b-1vBpVpgCMbHuhP-kx36Bw